Every winter in Wisconsin will bring snow, cold, wind, and blowing snow.
So, when I make a winter weather forecast, I strive to highlight what is likely to happen in comparison to our area’s norm. Will we get more or less snow than in a regular winter?
Each year, I wonder if it’s worth it. Is there any benefit in forecasting the entire season?
I believe there is value, particularly based on the results. Over the last 18 years, eight of these projections have been spot on, six have been extremely near to the expected range, and only four have been completely off.
These forecasts are based on a set of conditions across the Northern Hemisphere, which can alter substantially during certain winters. This results in inaccurate forecasts.
Last year, I predicted 40 to 50 inches of snow for Green Bay, and we got 47.1 inches. Also, last year’s prognosis predicted a warm winter with record-breaking temperatures and below-average snowfall following New Year’s Day.
That forecast came true, and I probably underestimated it.
Last winter, we set numerous records. It was the warmest December on record, with Green Bay records dating back to 1886. This was the 12th warmest January on record. We broke the February record for the warmest month, finishing 12.0 degrees above average. It was also the seventh-warmest March on record.
When the winter was over, we had the warmest winter season on record, at 30.6 degrees. That was an impressive 8.4 degrees above average, beating the previous record by nearly 3 degrees.
This year will be different because the global and ocean patterns have changed. Most notably, the tropical Pacific has transitioned from a moderate to strong El Nino to a weak La Nina. The center Pacific is experiencing a severely negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas the entire North Atlantic basin is still running above average.
With these conditions, I predict warmer-than-average temperatures for the eastern half of the United States and cooler-than-average temperatures west of the Continental Divide.
The mid-Mississippi River Valley, Ohio Valley, and mid-Atlantic, as well as the Pacific Northwest, are likely to receive above-average precipitation. Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and California are anticipated to see drier-than-normal conditions.
For us in Northeast Wisconsin, I expect a very ordinary winter. Temperatures will be close to or slightly above average during the winter months. The average temperature for the entire winter is 22.2 degrees, and I predict that our winter season will end between 22.0 and 24.0 degrees, which is close to or slightly over average.
I believe the snowfall will be pretty close to normal, with each month being near average until March, which will be somewhat below average.
Overall, the average snowfall for a winter in Green Bay is 55.6″, and I believe we will get between 50 and 60 inches this winter. As a result, both snowfall and temperatures should be roughly average.
Reference: Patrick Powell’s winter forecast: Last year’s record-breaking winter is unlikely to repeat