College Park, MD – La Niña has made its official comeback for a second consecutive year this autumn and winter, bringing notable shifts to seasonal weather patterns across the United States. According to recent data from NOAA’s National Climate Prediction Center, water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean have dropped 0.5 degrees Celsius below normal, prompting the agency to issue a La Niña Advisory.
This natural climate phenomenon, part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, influences weather worldwide by altering jet stream patterns. As we approach the colder months, understanding what La Niña means for different US regions can help residents prepare for what lies ahead.
How La Niña Shapes Winter Weather in the US
La Niña is linked to cooler-than-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically dipping below 0.5 degrees Celsius. This cooling sets off a cascade of atmospheric changes that tend to push the Polar Jet Stream southward across the northern US and direct the Pacific Jet Stream toward the West and Northwest coasts.
- Colder and wetter conditions often affect the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, with the Pacific Northwest usually enjoying above-average mountain snowpacks.
- The Southern US, particularly the Southeast and Southwest extending into Texas, usually experiences milder and drier winters.
- Regions like the Southwest may continue to see drought conditions during La Niña winters.
“A weak La Niña would likely result in less conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence forecast guidance,” NOAA forecasters explained.
What Makes This La Niña Different?
This year’s La Niña is expected to be relatively weak, with sea surface temperatures predicted not to drop more than -0.9 degrees Celsius below average. Forecasters also suggest it may be short-lived, with a 55% chance that the Pacific Ocean will warm and shift back to ENSO-neutral conditions by midwinter.
Last winter followed a similar pattern, featuring a weak and delayed La Niña that tapered off by spring. These nuances mean that while the typical La Niña patterns are likely, other weather factors could produce variations such as mild spells in the Northern Plains or unexpected rainfall in the South.
Read Also: Wichita Weather Update: Breezy Weekend with Warm Temperatures and Late Sunday Storms
Impact on Seasonal Forecasts and Hurricane Activity
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks for November through February already incorporate expectations of La Niña’s influence:
- The Northern US, especially the Pacific Northwest, is forecasted to experience below-average temperatures.
- The Southern US is predicted to enjoy above-average temperatures with drier conditions.
- Precipitation is expected to be above average in northern regions and below average in the South.
Additionally, La Niña conditions are usually linked to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons due to reduced wind shear. However, NOAA indicates this La Niña likely arrived too late to significantly affect the waning 2025 hurricane season.
For ongoing updates about La Niña and detailed seasonal forecasts, visit here.
Preparing for the 2025-2026 Winter
As La Niña continues to influence US weather patterns this winter, communities in affected regions should prepare accordingly:
- Northern states: anticipate colder and wetter weather, which could impact travel and outdoor activities.
- Southern states: expect milder, drier conditions but remain alert for occasional weather fluctuations.
- Areas prone to drought: the Southwest could see continued dryness needing water conservation efforts.
Understanding La Niña’s patterns and forecasts can help you plan a safer, more comfortable winter season ahead.
What do you think about this La Niña forecast and its potential impacts? Share your thoughts in the comments below!