The outcome of Wisconsin’s high-stakes Supreme Court race, set for Tuesday, hinges on rural support for conservative candidate Brad Schimel — the same demographic that helped Donald Trump secure victory in 2024. However, voters in these areas are now contending with the economic consequences of White House policies, including tariffs and funding freezes that threaten their livelihoods.
Schimel, a former state attorney general, needs Trump-level turnout from rural regions to defeat Democratic-backed Susan Crawford. But growing dissatisfaction, especially in the agricultural community, could alter the political equation.
“If [Schimel] doesn’t have the kind of support that President Trump had in rural Wisconsin, ball game over,” said Brian Reisinger, a former GOP adviser specializing in rural policy. “The rural vote is the most determinative factor in this race — and a major indicator of momentum heading into the midterms.”
Both parties are treating this race as a bellwether. Trump hosted a tele-town hall last Thursday, urging voters to back Schimel. Tech billionaire Elon Musk also made a rare campaign appearance, rallying for Schimel on Sunday. Musk’s involvement, though, is met with skepticism — especially in northern and western Wisconsin, where his approval rating is underwater by 17 points, according to a Marquette Law School poll.
That same poll found that most rural voters believe tariffs hurt the economy. Trump remains relatively popular in rural Wisconsin, but Musk, his close adviser and head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is less well-received.
Farmers Bear the Brunt
Wisconsin’s farmers have been particularly affected by retaliatory tariffs from Canada, which target $5.8 billion in U.S. agricultural exports such as meat, dairy, and grain. Additionally, a USDA funding freeze has delayed reimbursements for essential rural energy projects.
Darin Von Ruden, president of the Wisconsin Farmers Union, said the economic uncertainty is widespread. “The biggest thing that I hear is the true uncertainty that we’re in,” he said. “Not knowing what tomorrow is going to look like, or what’s going to come out of the White House or the USDA.”
Environmental concerns also loom large. A pending case before the state Supreme Court could limit the Department of Natural Resources’ ability to enforce water protection laws — a vital issue for farmers worried about clean water access.
Nationwide Tensions Over DOGE
Across the country, rural voters are growing uneasy with the Trump administration’s economic policies. In Maryland, farmer Laura Beth Resnick sued the administration after DOGE froze a $36,000 USDA grant for installing solar panels. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently offered to unfreeze certain programs — but only if recipients revise their plans to align with the administration’s anti-DEI and anti-climate mandates.
Despite such backlash, many GOP lawmakers continue to champion DOGE. Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) dismissed constituent concerns as “false narratives” and reiterated his support for the department’s budget-slashing efforts.
Likewise, Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) told a distressed Pennsylvania farmer that DOGE’s work is “a crucial first step towards reducing unnecessary government spending,” even as local agricultural communities voice alarm over delayed payments and rising costs.
Election Outcome Uncertain
Despite policy backlash, Republicans in Wisconsin are projecting confidence. Peter Church, GOP chair in Adams County, claims that local voters remain loyal. “I’m not hearing people talk about abortion at all. And I’m not hearing them talk about the tariff issue,” he said. “These people are by and large red voters. And though the Supreme Court race is nonpartisan, they see that the red side is Brad Schimel.”
As the nation watches Wisconsin, the results could signal more than just a court seat — they may foreshadow whether rural discontent with Trump’s economic agenda is growing loud enough to shift political tides in 2025 and beyond.
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