CheapNailsalonsnearme– Joe Biden’s wins in Arizona and Georgia in the 2020 election were two of the most important presidential wins for Democrats in the last few decades. The party finally broke through with voters in a big way in places that had been bases for Republicans for a long time.
But the wins were close. Georgia went to Biden by about 12,000 votes out of almost 5 million cast ballots, and Arizona went to the president by about 10,000 votes out of almost 3.4 million cast ballots. Even though Biden is still behind in national polls, he is still way behind in Arizona and Georgia.
This is a big problem that threatens the very electoral math that put him in the White House in 2020. Some of Biden’s biggest problems as he tries to win back Arizona and Georgia next year are a drop in support from independents, a loss of support from Black and Latino voters, and voters who are unhappy with the economy and the war between Israel and Hamas.
A lot of black people don’t feel like they’re being seen. South Carolina’s 2020 Democratic primary gave Biden the nod for his party, but Georgia may have been the state that best showed how he came from behind to win. Biden’s victory in the state was helped by the large number of Black voters in Atlanta and its surrounding urban area, as well as by Black voters in rural Georgia.
Black voters made up 29% of all votes in Georgia in 2020, and according to Edison Research exit polls, they chose Biden over Trump by 77 points (88% to 11%). White voters, who made up about 61% of the population that year, chose Trump by 39 points (69% to 30%), which gave Biden just enough of a win.
So even a small change in Georgia’s voting patterns, especially among Black voters, could hurt Biden’s chances there. Mara Gay of The New York Times recently wrote that some young Black voters in Georgia are unhappy with the government because of higher food and living costs in an economy that is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic in many ways.
There are also a lot of young voters who don’t want Israel to get billions of dollars in foreign aid because they say the country should spend more in the United States instead of Gaza. A new poll from the New York Times and Siena College found that among registered voters in Georgia, Trump had a 6-point lead over Biden (49% to 43%).
And only 19% of Black voters chose the former president. On the other hand, 76% of Black voters chose Biden. Biden can’t win Georgia again if he gets less than 80% of the vote from Black people and less than 80% of the vote from other groups in the state. Republican presidential candidates often have trouble getting more than 15% of the Black vote.
If Trump takes away Biden’s most loyal supporters, the president will have a much harder time winning Georgia again. Biden will need to get a lot of black people to vote next year if he wants to win the state’s 16 electoral votes in 2024. Are Latinos in Arizona going to vote for Biden? Biden’s victory in Arizona in 2020 was another big step forward for Democrats in the West.
The party’s recent gains have been made possible by the growing number of Latino voters in the area. That’s why Colorado and New Mexico have become so Democratic in recent years when it comes to the presidential race, but Nevada has mostly been Democratic in recent years when it comes to local races.
Biden did in 2020 what Democrats in Arizona had wanted to do for a long time: win Maricopa County, get Latino voters to the polls, and get enough independents from the suburbs to win the state. It was hard to keep the balance, but Biden did it.
But things might be different in 2024 since immigration is still one of the most divisive topics in American politics. Like in Georgia, high living costs are a big problem for a lot of Arizonans. This hurts the Biden campaign, while the president talks about low unemployment and job growth.
A study by the New York Times and Siena found that Trump had a 5-point lead over Biden in Arizona (49% to 44%). However, Biden had a 14-point lead among Latino voters (55% to 41%). It’s good news for the president, but in 2020, he lost to Hillary Clinton by about 24 points among Latino voters.
It would be very bad for Biden if Latino voters, who are a big part of his support here, didn’t vote or didn’t turn out in large numbers. Biden doesn’t need to win Arizona and Georgia to stay in office, but he does need to stay in the running in both states in case he loses other important swing states like Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.
Biden’s biggest problem is that he will need to win all of the close states to get to 270 electoral votes and the presidency. If he fails in places like Arizona and Georgia, that will be important. A president who is currently in office and has an average job approval rate of 39% is in a very tough spot.
A lot of these people helped the Democrats win back the White House in 2020 and the House of Representatives in 2018. But over the past year, they’ve grown tired of Biden. It was found by Gallup in November 2023 that 27% of independents liked Biden.
Gallup’s December poll showed that Biden’s numbers got better to 34%, but he’s still behind with this important group. Pew Research Center says that Biden beat Trump by 9 points, or 52% to 43%, among independent voters in the 2020 race.
If Biden wants to win over this group next fall, it will depend on both a better economy and the idea that the economy has gotten better. The president has been traveling the country trying to sell the record of his administration without being able to get these two things together.
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